The art of the bookmaker is to achieve profit with a successful guess – no matter how the game has started. A bookie earns primarily by the money that the stakes offer, which do not express the actual probability outcome of the game.
Example: In the article “How to Calculate Odds” we started out on the following situation. Bayern Munich plays at home against Wolfsburg and one bookmaker offers the following odds:
If you add up all the probabilities, then the result is a value of 115.8%, although no sporting event in the world can happen with a certainty of more than 100%. If we now calculate 1: 1, 158, then there is a rounded value of 0.864. Again, if we subtract one we get the expected results from 1 to 0.864 = 0.137. Expressed as a percentage, this makes 13.7% of this value, representing the profit margin of the bookmaker.
Now if 62.5% of the total bets is placed on a home win, and 33.3% , respectively – 20% – on the draw or the away win, then the bookmaker wins as in our example, 13.7% of the total bet, no matter how the game ends! In short, the bookmaker, in this case with an event whose probability is 100%, has sold odds for 115.8%, and thus has generated a gain of 13.7%.
The formula to calculate the bookmaker margin (in our example) is: Margin = 1 – [1: (1/1, 60 + 1/3, 00 + 1/5, 00)] = 13.7%
In reality, it will only very rarely happen so that the stakes are distributed just as bookmakers wish them to be; betting odds, therefore, are being continuously adapted to the demand and supply. Usually the bulk of the players is likely to bet on their favorites, which means that the offered rate falls onto the favorites, and finally, the bookmaker balances his “book” by the odds for a draw, and an underdog victory raises it so as to get more people to get these successful results as set.
Moreover, in practice we can say that the bookmakers rarely will distribute the profit margin evenly among all outputs.
Football betting is by far the most popular type of sports betting. 50% – 60% of all bets are generally placed on football. Tennis betting follows with respectful distance, which accounts for about 15% of all bets made. Even if one wants to place a bet on football just for the fun of it now and then, one secretly always has the desire to win. You should still ask yourself whether you simply want to increase the voltage of a football evening with friends with Online Soccer Betting, or whether you actually want to be profitable.
Those who are in the first group, need at this point to read on no longer, and probably bet on a star team after reading an overview of a good football betting provider. Also, for those who want to bet profitably on football, this overview will of course be interesting. However, it is still worth reading the following guide to successful Soccer Betting.
Soccer Betting = Mathematics
First, you should accept the fact that any long-term success with soccer betting or sports betting has nothing to do with emotions, gut feeling or the “right feeling”, but is mathematically explainable. Finally, you bet on odds and win or lose money. If we solely trust and play on betting odds from bookmakers that were overstated, then you will ultimately be in the black!
Information about what a quota expresses at all, and how the calculation works, can be found in the article “Odds Calculations”. An excessive quota, how may this be understood? This is explained in the article “Value Understanding “. The shortest explanation is that a quota is nothing but an expression of probability. If a bookmaker estimates that the probability is too low, then the betting odds are too high, which can (and must) be profitable in sports betting.
Bet on favorites or on Underdogs?
The most likely thing to do with football bets is to place them on favorites. Yes, of course, favorites win more often as an outsider, but this does not mean that you will somehow gain a long-term profitability streak. Favorites’ rates tend to be too low, and outsider odds – too high. The emphasis here is on the trend, because this is obviously not a universal rule by which one blindly makes profits with soccer betting.
Bayern, Real Madrid and Barcelona play in a home game? Sure, the mass of the punters will look for the big names with home advantage. Also the bookmakers know this, and in order to get the wager on the underdog, or the draw, the corresponding rates are increased (i.e. become more attractive). Moreover, one must bear in mind that shortly before the game’s start there are always a lot of bets received on the favorite. Looking from the perspective of the betting company, you have to imagine the distribution of stakes as a pair of scales. Put too many stakes on one side, and then you have to bring the balance back, halfway through rate adjustments in balance.
Football betting in big leagues are more difficult
The more information one bookmaker has on a league, the teams and the players, the easier it is to produce an accurate betting odds. In the Bundesleague, the Premier League or the Primera Division, all relevant information is easily accessible. Sports newspapers, Internet portals, sports forums, historical results, interviews, etc, etc, can be accessed easily in any language. In the big leagues, there is hardly unknown variables for the bookmakers. So often you act better with soccer betting on smaller leagues (which include already the second division in the five major leagues), because faulty quotations because of lack of information are more frequent.
Know when the quote is too high
The real art of success with online football betting is that you yourself can make a forecast for a starting game, which is often superior to that of the bookmaker. In other words – my betting odds must be calculated more accurately. If the separate quota is exact, then you can see if one of the football odds of the betting company is too high. The only question to ask yourself is how to generate your own (accurate) betting odds.
It is all about developing your own forecasting system for sports betting. To do this, you have to be able to weight (in percentage) correctly all of the factors that could affect the outcome of the game. Also, we have a separate category for star betting (“Create prediction systems for sports betting”) in which the most important points are to be discussed.
Portioning money is to be learned
Also in football betting there are highs and lows, and you have to be prepared especially for the lows, as not to unnecessarily go “bankrupt”. Those who constantly win the same amount, bet less than is actually possible. Those who, in accord with a rigid soccer betting system doubles his bets after a lost bet (this is called the Martingale System), runs the risk of destroying his entire sports betting capital. The magic word for the happy golden middle is called “money management”. There are numerous approaches for the right capital division, or portioning, both in sports and football betting, but the most popular is called the Kelly System, in which the stakes are always dynamically adjusted.
Profit progressions (also called Paroli ) work on the same principle as loss progressions, with the only difference that the stakes can not be increased after a loss, but after a winning bet. In order to properly play Paroli, you must prepare to have some thoughts and general ideas on the design of the system in advance.
First: Determining the value of a “unit”: The volume of a unit is determined by the total bet and the budget should be at least 1-3% of it. So if you have a total of 1,000 euros as betting capital available, the unit should be between 10 and 30 euros.
Second: Determining the number of progressive stages: In total, after how many winning, consecutive bets you take the profits and start again from the beginning.
Third: At what rates would you like to play: Are you more like the type who likes to win many bets and for whom accepting losing bets is difficult? Well, then you should rather choose lower rates. The selection of quotas also affects the length of the progression levels (see point 2). As a rule of the thumb, the lower the odds – the more progressive stages there are.
The biggest advantage of the winning progressions is that with winning streaks you can achieve more profits than with flat stakes. If you win the bet of the first stage of the progression, then you can enjoy the luxury of the “money of the bookmaker” to keep on betting with. At the same time, if all are losing bets, you lose only one unit of the stake. So, with disciplined Paroli betting practice, the risk of a total loss is not as prominent as in loss progressions.
As mentioned earlier, the number of progressive stages is not rigidly given, but can be adapted to your own needs. Then again, too many progressive stages should not be chosen, however, because if you win, for example, four consecutive bets, the progression still works and usually the fifth bet loses, then the frustration could run deep. It is not infrequent that you can get carried away with the excessive rash of betting; in a few cases, you should avoid such “emotional bets” when betting anyway, and then, profitably, at poker as well.
The most common profit income progressions are the anti-Martingale and Contre D’Alambert strategy. Both are essentially nothing more than the reversal of the loss progressions Martingale and D’Alambert. Anti Martingale and Contre D’Alambert will be treated in more detail in separate articles.